Arizona’s Anti-Poverty Gains Are at Risk as H.R. 1 Changes Take Effect 

New analysis finds Social Security, SNAP, tax credits and other supports keep 802,000 Arizonans out of poverty; researchers warn those effects may be eroded beginning in 2026 

New poverty data released by the U.S. Census Bureau this week tell two stories about economic security in Arizona. 

The first is that too many Arizona families are still struggling to afford the basics. The second is that public programs are making that struggle significantly less severe. 

A new 50-state analysis from Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy released alongside the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual poverty data estimates that tax credits and government transfer programs keep 802,000 Arizonans out of poverty. Without those supports — including Social Security, SNAP, refundable tax credits, housing assistance and school meals — Arizona’s Supplemental Poverty Measure would rise from an estimated 13.6% to 24.3%, nearly one in four people in the state. 

That finding comes at an especially consequential moment. The latest Census data largely describe conditions before many of the changes enacted through the 2025 federal reconciliation law, H.R. 1, are fully reflected in poverty and program-participation data. Columbia University researchers describe their new state estimates as a picture of the tax-and-transfer system on the eve of changes that could reduce some of the poverty-reducing effects documented in the report. 

In other words, these numbers do more than tell us where Arizona has been. They show what is currently helping — and establish a baseline for measuring what happens as access to food assistance, health coverage and other supports changes. 

Nationally, the Census Bureau reported that the official poverty rate declined to 10.2% in 2025, while the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) remained statistically unchanged at 13.1%. The SPM offers a fuller view of household economic security because it counts resources such as food assistance and tax credits while also accounting for costs including housing, medical care, taxes, work expenses and child care.  

Arizona’s poverty rate tells only part of the story 

The difference between the official poverty measure and the SPM matters because families do not experience economic security solely through wages or cash income. 

They experience it through what they can actually afford after paying rent, medical bills, child care and taxes — and through whether supports such as SNAP, tax credits and housing assistance are available to help cover those costs. 

That is why the Columbia University analysis is so revealing. 

Researchers estimate that approximately 1.019 million Arizonans lived below the SPM poverty threshold on average from 2023 through 2025. Without taxes and government transfers, that number would have risen to approximately 1.821 million. 

That is a difference of 802,000 people. 

And the impact is not concentrated in a single program. Social Security has the largest effect, keeping roughly 682,000 Arizonans out of poverty. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) keeps about 103,000 out of poverty, the Child Tax Credit about 88,000, and SNAP about 74,000. Housing assistance and school meals help tens of thousands more.  

For Arizona children, the EITC, Child Tax Credit and SNAP alone are associated with tens of thousands fewer children living in poverty. 

What happens when those supports are weakened? 

That is the question the newest data cannot yet answer. 

The 2025 poverty figures largely precede the full implementation of H.R. 1. The Columbia researchers specifically warn that their estimates capture the poverty-reducing effects of policies before the law’s major changes are fully reflected in the data.  

That makes this year’s numbers an unusually important benchmark. 

They show, in concrete terms, the scale of the role public programs currently play in Arizona. Future data will show what happens as eligibility rules, work requirements, state financing responsibilities and other provisions take effect. 

And that is why the debate over these programs cannot be separated from the poverty numbers themselves. When programs put food on the table, supplement low wages, help families pay rent or provide income in retirement, they are not abstract line items in a federal budget. They are part of the reason hundreds of thousands of Arizonans are above the poverty line today. 

H.R. 1 puts those gains at risk 

The 2025 data show how much public programs are already doing to reduce poverty. They do not yet show the full consequences of the changes enacted through H.R. 1. 

Many of those changes are only beginning to take effect or will phase in over the next several years. H.R. 1 expands SNAP work requirements and creates new Medicaid community-engagement requirements for certain adults beginning in 2027. The Congressional Budget Office notes that these changes are expected to reduce both federal spending and program participation.  

That matters because the same programs now being changed are among those the new data show are helping Arizona families stay above the poverty line. 

In Arizona, SNAP alone is associated with roughly 75,000 fewer people living in poverty, including about 35,000 children.  

The effects of H.R. 1 will not show up all at once. But as eligibility rules tighten and administrative requirements increase, some households will have fewer resources available for food, health care, housing, and other basic needs. 

That is why the 2025 poverty data should be viewed as a baseline, not an endpoint. 

Child Tax Credit shows why policy design matters 

The new data also reinforce the importance of refundable tax credits for families with children. 

The Columbia analysis estimates that the Child Tax Credit keeps approximately 88,000 Arizonans out of poverty, including about 49,000 children. The Earned Income Tax Credit has an even larger effect for Arizona children, keeping about 52,000 above the poverty line.  

But tax credits only reduce poverty to the extent families can actually access them. 

The structure of the Child Tax Credit still leaves some families with very low earnings unable to receive the full benefit. That means policy design — including eligibility and refundability — can determine whether the families with the fewest resources receive the same level of support as families with higher earnings.  

The Arizona numbers show why that matters. When tax credits reach families with children, they can measurably reduce poverty. When families are excluded or receive smaller benefits, that poverty-reducing effect is limited. 

2025 is the baseline — not the endpoint 

The latest Census figures give Arizona an unusually important reference point. 

They show what poverty looks like before the full effects of H.R. 1 appear in the data. They also show how much existing programs are already doing to reduce hardship. 

Columbia estimates largely reflect the tax-and-transfer system before the full implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law and therefore provide a picture of these programs’ poverty-reducing effects before many of the new federal changes take fuller effect.  

In the years ahead, Arizona should be watching poverty rates, SNAP participation, health coverage, tax-credit access, and the number of families navigating new administrative requirements. 

Those indicators will help show not only whether economic hardship is increasing or declining, but also how changes in federal policy are affecting the resources available to Arizona households. 

What Arizona should watch next 

The clearest lesson from the new data is that public programs are not peripheral to Arizona’s economic picture. They are part of it. 

Social Security, SNAP, refundable tax credits, housing assistance, school meals, and other supports are already keeping hundreds of thousands of Arizonans above the poverty line. 

The Columbia analysis estimates that, taken together, taxes and transfer programs reduce Arizona’s poverty rate by 10.7 percentage points, from 24.3% before those policies are counted to 13.6% after them. That represents about 802,000 Arizonans kept above the poverty line.  

As H.R. 1 takes fuller effect, future Census and program-participation data will show whether Arizona is able to preserve that economic security or whether more families are pushed closer to — or below — the poverty line. 

The 2025 data give us the baseline. What comes next will show the effects of the policy choices being implemented now.