New Data Show Arizona Grocery Jobs, Wages Falling Faster Than Nationally as Congress Weighs SNAP Changes

Arizona grocery and convenience store employment fell roughly four times faster than the national rate as SNAP participation declined; Farm Bill decisions could put additional pressure on families, retailers and the state budget

Arizona grocery and convenience stores lost jobs and wages at a significantly faster rate than the country overall in early 2026, according to new federal labor data analyzed by the Arizona Center for Economic Progress, raising concerns about what additional reductions in food purchasing power could mean for families, retailers and the state economy. 

The declines occurred as approximately 175,000 Arizonans disappeared from SNAP between December 2025 and March 2026 — and as Congress considers a Farm Bill that could determine how soon Arizona becomes responsible for millions of dollars in new SNAP costs. 

New data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages show that employment at Arizona grocery and convenience stores fell about 2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Nationally, employment in the sector declined roughly 0.5% — meaning Arizona’s rate of decline was approximately four times greater. 

Total grocery and convenience store wages also fell more sharply in Arizona. Nationally, wages declined by less than 1% compared with the previous year; in Arizona, they declined approximately 3.3%. 

“These numbers are an important warning about what happens when families have less money to spend on food,” said Joseph Palomino, director of the Arizona Center for Economic Progress. “SNAP dollars don’t stop with the families receiving them. They are spent in grocery stores and communities across Arizona, supporting businesses and jobs. Congress should be looking at the full economic consequences as it decides what comes next for SNAP.” 

The findings come as Congress considers legislation that could affect when states begin bearing a portion of SNAP benefit costs for the first time in the program’s more than 50-year history. 

The Senate Agriculture Committee last week advanced the Agriculture Act of 2026, which includes a one-year delay in implementing a new requirement enacted under H.R. 1. Under that requirement, states with SNAP payment error rates of at least 6% generally will be required to contribute toward benefit costs, with the state share increasing as error rates rise. 

Arizona’s official fiscal year 2025 SNAP payment error rate was 10.8%, a level that could place the state in the 15% cost-sharing tier if that rate is ultimately used. The Arizona Department of Economic Security has reported an unofficial partial fiscal year 2026 rate of 7.91%, which, if finalized at that level and used for the calculation, would put Arizona in the 5% tier. 

The difference could translate into dramatically different costs for the state. 

The Senate proposal would give states an additional year to improve their error rates and prepare for the cost shift, while some lawmakers have sought a two-year delay. 

“Additional time would help, but delaying the deadline does not eliminate the underlying problem,” Palomino said. “Arizona would still face enormous pressure to reduce its error rate quickly or take on substantial new costs. If that pressure results in administrative changes that make it harder for eligible families to stay enrolled, the consequences won’t be limited to those households. They can ripple through grocery stores, local economies and the state budget.” 

Payment error rates are also estimates rather than precise measurements of every SNAP case. A recent Brookings Institution analysis found an average standard error of approximately 1.1 percentage points in state payment error rates, even though H.R. 1’s cost-sharing tiers are separated by as little as two percentage points. As a result, relatively small statistical variations could significantly affect what states are required to pay. 

The potential cost shift could be particularly consequential during an economic downturn, when state revenues typically face pressure at the same time more families may need food assistance. 

Arizona’s early-2026, grocery-sector data provide a glimpse of why those decisions matter beyond the federal SNAP program. In Apache County, for example, grocery and convenience store employment declined 6.25% between the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, while total wages declined 9.6%. 

“Arizona is already seeing warning signs,” Palomino said. “The question before Congress isn’t simply how SNAP is financed. It’s whether federal policy will create additional pressure on families, Arizona’s budget and the local businesses that depend on consumer spending.”

Read the full analysis:

Arizona’s Grocery Economy Is Already Losing Ground. The Farm Bill Could Determine What Comes Next.  

Follow SNAP losses with the SNAP Tracker from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.