Mass Deportations Would Leave Arizona Seniors and People with Disabilities Without Care
EPI analysis sounds the alarm on looming caregiver shortage
An analysis released by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) highlights a critical and often overlooked consequence of the Trump administration’s proposed mass deportation agenda: the destabilization of the direct care workforce that older adults and people with disabilities rely on every day.
EPI finds that deporting up to 4 million people over the next four years would eliminate nearly 400,000 direct care jobs nationwide, including home health aides and personal care attendants who provide essential in-home support. Importantly, these losses would not fall only on immigrant workers. EPI estimates that about 274,000 immigrant workers and roughly 120,000 U.S.-born workers would lose jobs as care systems shrink and demand for services goes unmet.
For Arizona, the implications are significant. The state is home to nearly 73,000 home-health and personal care aides, and immigrants make up about 1 in 4 direct care workers. At the same time, Arizona’s aging population is rapidly increasing demand for care. Nearly half of Arizonans age 75 and older live with a disability, and the state is projected to need nearly 200,000 additional direct care workers over the next decade just to keep pace.
Workforce losses of this magnitude would worsen existing shortages, lengthening waitlists for in-home services, and push more families into crisis as unpaid caregivers struggle to fill the gap. They would also increase pressure on hospitals, nursing facilities, and state Medicaid programs, raising costs while reducing access to care. The Arizona Center for Economic Progress previously wrote about concerns related to federal policies on Arizona’s health care economy last year.
This new analysis builds on earlier EPI research showing that mass deportations would cost the U.S. economy millions of jobs overall, including in construction and child care, and that job losses would hit U.S.-born workers alongside immigrants. Together, the findings underscore a clear reality: Deportation policies do not “free up” jobs or strengthen the economy. Instead, they weaken essential care systems and threaten economic stability at both national and state levels.
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