2 policy decisions, 1 economic hit: What’s next for Arizona families

SNAP benefits, ACA Marketplace premiums support strong state economy

PHOENIX — Arizona families are facing a one-two punch that could threaten both their food security and their access to affordable health care.

Today’s court rulings temporarily averted a crisis by forcing the release of federal contingency funds to pay for November SNAP benefits — dollars that many families rely on to put food on the table.

But as soon as tomorrow, thousands of Arizonans could see their ACA Marketplace premiums spike, putting health insurance out of reach for small business owners, gig workers, and families already struggling to make ends meet.

Below are key Arizona-specific data points tied to both policy areas:

Enhanced Premium Tax Credits (ePTCs)

• Without an extension of ePTCs, 141,000 Arizonans could lose coverage, and state and local tax revenues could fall by $43 million (Commonwealth Fund).
• 1 in 4 Arizona ACA enrollees in 2022 were small business owners or self-employed workers.
• Nationally, 82% of small business owners and self-employed workers used a premium tax credit to purchase insurance in 2022. (U.S. Treasury).
• ACA marketplace enrollment in Arizona has grown 177% from 2020–2025.
• The number of self-employed and gig-economy workers has risen 13% from 20192023. (U.S. Census Bureau Nonemployer Statistics 2019, 2023)

SNAP: Economic and Tax Impact

• Every $1 of SNAP invested in children can produce up to $62 in long-term benefits (Bailey et al.).
• Each $1 cut from SNAP for families with children costs society $14–$20 (Columbia University).
• Losing November SNAP benefits would reduce U.S. real GDP growth by 0.7 percentage point (EY-Parthenon).
• USDA estimates that every $1 of SNAP generates $1.54 in economic activity.
• In Arizona, $1 in economic activity from SNAP benefits likely generates 7 cents in state taxes.
• The loss of $155 million in SNAP spending could reduce Arizona’s economic activity by $238 million and state taxes by $16.5 million.
• Arizona has 4,700 SNAP retailers, including 256 grocery stores and 53 farmers markets (USDA).

Please reach out if you’d like additional analysis, Arizona data, or to speak with experts on the potential economic or human impacts of these policy decisions.