Arizona’s Anti-Poverty Gains at Risk as Federal Cuts Take Effect
New analysis shows Social Security, SNAP, tax credits and other supports keep 802,000 Arizonans out of poverty — progress that could be eroded as H.R. 1 reshapes assistance for families
New poverty data released this week show the scale of the progress Arizona has made through programs that help families afford food, housing and other basic needs — and provide a warning about what could be lost as major federal changes take effect.
A new 50-state analysis from Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy estimates that tax credits and government transfer programs keep 802,000 Arizonans out of poverty. Without those supports, researchers estimate Arizona’s Supplemental Poverty Measure would rise from 13.6% to 24.3% — nearly 1 in 4 people in the state.
Those findings largely reflect conditions before the full effects of H.R. 1 are visible in poverty data. The 2025 federal reconciliation law changes eligibility, work requirements, financing and administration for programs including SNAP and Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the law will reduce SNAP benefits and federal SNAP funding and will reduce Medicaid enrollment by millions nationally over the coming decade.
That makes the new data an important baseline: they show how much existing supports have been doing to reduce hardship before many of the new federal changes are fully reflected in household resources.
“These numbers show how much progress public programs have made possible in Arizona — and how much is now at stake. Hundreds of thousands of Arizonans are above the poverty line because policies help families afford food, housing and other necessities. As H.R. 1 takes fuller effect, we risk losing some of that progress and making it harder for families to maintain the economic security these programs have helped provide,” said Gauri Agarwal, state policy fellow at the Arizona Center for Economic Progress.
The U.S. Census Bureau this week released its annual poverty data for 2025, including new state-level estimates based on three-year averages for 2023 through 2025. Nationally, the Supplemental Poverty Measure was 13.1% in 2025, statistically unchanged from 2024. The SPM provides a broader picture of economic hardship because it counts resources such as food assistance and refundable tax credits while also accounting for costs including housing, medical care, taxes, work expenses and child care.
The Columbia analysis builds on those data to estimate how individual public programs affect poverty in every state.
In Arizona, Social Security had the largest poverty-reducing effect, keeping an estimated 682,000 people out of poverty. The Earned Income Tax Credit kept approximately 103,000 Arizonans above the poverty line, the Child Tax Credit about 88,000, and SNAP approximately 74,000. Housing assistance and school meals also reduced poverty.
For children, the effects are especially significant. The analysis estimates that the Earned Income Tax Credit kept approximately 52,000 Arizona children out of poverty, the Child Tax Credit about 49,000, and SNAP about 35,000.
The researchers caution that their estimates capture the poverty-reducing effects of these policies before H.R. 1 is fully implemented. Their report notes that some of those effects may be eroded beginning in 2026 and beyond as the new federal policy changes take fuller effect.
CBO has separately projected that the reconciliation law will reduce resources available to lower-income households through changes to Medicaid and SNAP. It estimates that the law will reduce federal SNAP spending by $211 billion through 2035, reflecting lower participation, lower average benefits and greater state responsibility for program costs. CBO also projects a net reduction of about $1.2 trillion in Medicaid outlays from 2026 through 2035 and significantly lower Medicaid enrollment.
“The question now is not whether these programs make a difference — the data show that they do,” Agarwal said. “The question is what happens to Arizona families as access to some of these supports is reduced. The 2025 data give us a benchmark for measuring whether the progress we have made begins to unravel.”
Read AZCenter's and Columbia's analyses:
