Looking to Arizona's Next State Budget

On January 13, 2025, a new Arizona legislature will be sworn in and begin forming the 2026 state budget. Today’s budget outlook is significantly different from what legislators faced last January. Then, the state faced an $835 million deficit for the budget year that was already halfway over, with an additional $879 million deficit for the 2025 budget year. The Finance Advisory Committee recommended legislators identify $2.2 billion in solutions to re-balance the budget. In contrast, reports are already surfacing that today the state has a budget surplus for Fiscal Year 2026: the beginning balance was $324 million above what was originally expected, and, through the end of October, revenues are $235 million above what was anticipated in the budget.

Does this mean that the legislature has more than half a billion dollars to spend? Not exactly. There are key realities that advocates and legislators need to keep in mind when looking at budget priorities.

Current budget projections exclude spending that will eventually be added back in. State law requires the legislature to not only adopt a balanced budget for the upcoming year but to also estimate revenues and expenditures for the two years that follow. Arizona’s legislature has traditionally treated some spending that should be funded every year as one time – these “ongoing one-time issues” are funded in the budget being adopted but are not included in out-year projections. The largest of these funds that are vital on an ongoing basis are the K-12 building renewal grants and the state employee health insurance trust fund, totaling more than $323 million. Had just these two issues been treated as ongoing in the forecast, the three-year budget would not have been balanced.

Some of the steps taken to balance last year’s budget will be reversed at a cost to the General Fund in the future. Most of these reversals will not occur in the 2026 budget, but they will impact future spending. These include:

• $37 million for the K-12 poverty weight and $29 million for K-12 additional assistance, both of which were recategorized as one-time in the current budget but with the intent that they be returned to ongoing in budget year 2028. These funds invest in additional supports and resources so all students can thrive and be successful in school and their future.
• $200 million to reverse the temporary use of other funds in the Department of Juvenile Corrections, the Department of Corrections, and AHCCCS.
• $2.9 million to replace the temporarily increased deposits into the General Fund from the regulatory boards. Many Arizona regulatory boards, such as the medical board and board of psychology examiners, deposit 10 percent of their revenues into the state’s General Fund and retain the remaining 90 percent for their operations. The legislature changed the distribution to the General Fund to 15 percent through budget year 2028, bringing an additional $2.9 million a year into the General Fund.

Some priorities that were unfunded or underfunded should be revisited. These include:

• Child care assistance for families who can’t afford to work without affordable care. While the current budget included $12 million in increased funding, it was not enough to avoid the creation of a waiting list for low-income families in August 2024. Child care assistance not only helps families pay for quality child care but also helps employers by reducing the absences parents might have when other options fail. In the 2024 legislative session, $100 million in funding was sought to avoid placing families on a waiting list.
• Financial support for informal kinship families. When children cannot live with their own parent(s), a grandparent or other relative is often the next best place for them. Children who are taken into Department of Child Safety custody and are placed with relatives through the court system are eligible for assistance of $204 a month for the first child and $71 for each additional child. Informal kinship families where the grandparent or other relative took the child in without the Department of Child Safety being involved also used to receive assistance – called “child only” payments – however, that part of the program was eliminated during the Great Recession and never restored. In these times of rising costs, restoration of this support for grandparents and kin is more important than ever.
• Teachers Academy to grow new teachers. The teachers academy has provided more than 1,000 teachers a year since 2021. This program provides free tuition for students who agree to teach in an Arizona public school. For budget year 2025, funding was cut from $30 million to $16 million.
• Promise Scholarships to make college affordable for eligible students with financial need. This program provides financial aid to Arizona high school graduates who meet the eligibility requirements for Pell Grants, making in-state higher education accessible for students who might not otherwise be able to afford it. The funding was cut from $40 million to $20 million. In addition, although the budget bills established a community college promise fund, no monies were appropriated for that fund.
• Community college pathways for learning and job skill development. The budget continues to suspend the operating budget funding formula for Maricopa and Pima community colleges, and it suspends inflationary adjustments for STEM and workforce programs for all community colleges.

What caused last year’s budget problems? While the solutions to resolve last year’s budget problems were primarily spending cuts, the problem was caused by revenues that fell short of projections. This was not due to a softening of the state’s economy. Instead, while Arizona’s economy was strong, revenues failed to reach needed levels due to the final phase-in of the flat income tax, which reduced state revenues by more than $2 billion.

Bottom Line. While on the surface, Arizona’s budget picture appears much rosier than it did a year ago, there are critical ongoing expenditures masked as “one-time” investments as well as reversals of temporary shifts that must be taken into account for a true understanding of Arizona’s fiscal standing. Legislators and advocates need to remember that the steps taken to balance the budget, whether by changes in terminology or actual cuts, will have impacts several years into the future.