Message From Our Director: The “Big Beautiful Bill” Is a Big Ugly Threat to Arizona and the Nation 

Congress just passed what Trump called his “Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping piece of legislation that’s anything but. While it’s framed as pro-growth tax and economic policy, the truth is far more dangerous. This bill is a disaster—for our communities, our economy, and the future of this country.  

At its core, this legislation pours billions of dollars into mass immigration enforcement while gutting essential supports like Medicaid and SNAP, all to fund permanent tax cuts tilted toward the wealthiest Americans. It’s economic malpractice with a hateful agenda. 

A Bill Driven by Fear, Not Facts 

The biggest mistake in trying to stop this bill was failing to see it for what it truly is: a deeply harmful and fear-based policy that hides behind the language of growth and prosperity. It advances an immigration crackdown reminiscent of the darkest chapters in American history. And it does so while hollowing out the programs that help families survive—just to fund giveaways for the ultra-wealthy. 

I’m grateful to the lawmakers who voted “no,” to the communities who stood up, and to the institutions—like the Federal Reserve—that may be left trying to steady the economy in the face of the chaos this bill creates. 

If You Wanted to Tank the Economy, You’d Write This Bill 

Let’s be clear: if you designed a bill to destabilize the U.S. economy, this is what it would look like. 

• Slash Medicaid and SNAP, two of the most stabilizing and essential programs for working families. 

• Add trillions to the federal debt for tax cuts that primarily benefit the top 1%. 

• Double down on mass deportation and immigration bans, gutting the workforce and harming growth. 

• Slap tariffs on key goods that drive up consumer costs and punish American businesses (while not part of the bill, still a major federal policy).  

Medicaid Cuts: Worsening Health and Economic Outcomes 

Health care accounts for nearly one-fifth of U.S. economic output. One in 10 American jobs is in health care or social assistance. And since 2023, health care has driven nearly half of all job growth.  Cutting nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid and kicking 16 million people off their health insurance doesn’t just harm public health—it risks economic catastrophe. Hospitals in rural and underserved communities could close. People will delay care, leading to worse outcomes and higher costs. The fallout will hit families, providers, and local economies hard.  

SNAP: Fighting Hunger and Fueling the Economy 

SNAP is one of the most effective economic programs we have. Every $1 in SNAP benefits generates $1.57 in economic activity. But this isn’t just about numbers—it’s about dignity. People deserve to eat. Increasing hunger to hand out more tax breaks to millionaires is not a policy disagreement—it’s a moral failure of the 21st Century.  

Tax Cuts and Trillions in New Debt 

First, the tax cuts will not deliver meaningful growth. This bill revives the worst elements of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which ballooned the deficit without delivering real wage growth or investment. Now, this new legislation is projected to add over $3.3 trillion to the deficit by 2034, with interest payments on U.S. debt nearing $2 trillion annually. 

Let’s put that in real terms: If a working family receives a $500 tax cut but faces a $10,000 higher home price due to tariffs and rising mortgage rates, it’s not a win. It’s a scam. Meanwhile, Arizona’s top 1% get an average annual tax break of nearly $80,000. Most families won’t even notice their tax cut—just the higher prices and interest rates that come with it. 

And what will we not be able to afford in the future? Critical infrastructure. Clean water. Public health systems. A future for the next generation.  

Billions to Fund Fear and Deportation 

This bill dedicates billions to immigration enforcement, accelerating mass deportations that rip apart communities and families and harm the very economy it claims to grow. 

Immigrants are essential to America’s economic strength. They power industries, fill critical labor shortages, and contribute at every level. Saying America can thrive without immigrants is like saying the human body can thrive without lungs. 

Without immigration, the U.S. population will begin to decline by 2033. That means a shrinking workforce, lower GDP, and reduced competitiveness. Deportation policies won’t just hurt immigrant families—they’ll hurt elder care, child care, and small businesses. Already, we’re seeing staff shortages in care sectors, and this will get worse. 

According to the Economic Policy Institute, the proposed mass deportation policy would cost the U.S. 6 million jobs—2.6 million of which could have been filled by U.S.-born workers.  

Lastly, the weakening economy from mass deportation will throw interest rates into severe uncertainty, where lower interest would be necessary to spur domestic growth, but investors would likely demand higher interest rates due to less faith in the U.S. economy. 

This Is About More Than the Economy 

Yes, this bill will wreak havoc on the economy. But more than that, it’s a reflection of our values. It punishes the vulnerable, rewards the ultra-wealthy, and divides communities. 

We cannot let this go unanswered. 

Now is the time to organize. Speak out. Demand better. 

We are all economists now. 

Sincerely,  

Joseph Palomino 

Arizona Center for Economic Progress